4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
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The team estimated its takeoff forecast incrementally, making its best guesses at each milestone.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“So we sort of like work through it bit by bit. And at each stage, we're just making our best guesses.”
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The team estimated its takeoff forecast incrementally, making its best guesses … · Savlar