The speaker thinks Metaculus may be wrong, but its forecasts appear to have been too pessimistic and too long-term rather than too optimistic.

“Again,”

“that may turn out to be wrong, but it does look like Metaculous overall have been too pessimistic, thinking too long term rather than”

“Rather than too optimistic and I think that's like the closest thing we have to a neutral aggregator where we're not cherry picking things”