opinion claim
The speaker thinks Metaculus may be wrong, but its forecasts appear to have been too pessimistic and too long-term rather than too optimistic.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
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“Again,”
“that may turn out to be wrong, but it does look like Metaculous overall have been too pessimistic, thinking too long term rather than”
“Rather than too optimistic and I think that's like the closest thing we have to a neutral aggregator where we're not cherry picking things”13:21Report a misattribution
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