Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
causal claim

The speaker proposes that blogging may be uncommon because it requires several skills that rarely coincide in one person; as an example, he describes five skills each possessed by 20% of people.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“multiplication problem where 20 percent of people are good at one thing 20 percent of people are good at another thing and you need five things there aren't that many plus something like courage where people who are would be good at writing blogs don't want to do it i actually know several people who i think would be great bloggers in the sense that sometimes they send me like multi-paragraph emails of response to an acx post and i'm like wow this is just”
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55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
50%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly