prediction claim
At the time of the conversation, the speaker's median forecast gave superintelligence a 50% chance of arriving by the end of 2028, after he lengthened his timeline before AI 2027 was published.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“by the time we actually published it, I had lengthened my timeline somewhat. So these days, I would say 50% by end of 2028.”Play from 47:52Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
99%confidence the claim was read correctly