prediction claim
Conditional on AI fully automating AI research and development, Ryan Greenblatt expects AI to probably reach the milestone of outperforming humans at their jobs within about a year.
Ryan Greenblatt · Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? · 11 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect meeting around 2033, but sort of like if I see AI is fully automating AR&D, I think I'm.”
“I'm expecting that probably within a year or just like.”Play from 3:15Report a misattribution
55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
82%confidence the claim was read correctly