prediction claim
The speaker guesses that AI will write a blog post as good as theirs when agents become genuinely good, which the scenario places in the late 2020s, around 2026.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So my guess for that prediction market would be whenever we think the agents are actually good.”
“I think in our scenario that's like late 20s, 26,”Play from 2:59:01Report a misattribution
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90%confidence the claim was read correctly