The AI 2027 scenario’s key uncertainty is the speed of progress: the authors are unsure whether it will be slower or faster, though they have arguments for their proposed pace.

“trend that runs through the whole thing of this algorithmic progress multiplier and we're not having discrete jumps from like zero to 5x to 25x we have this continuous improvement so i think continuous is not the crux the crux is like is it going to be this fast you know and we don't know maybe it'll be slower maybe it'll be faster but like we have our arguments for why we think maybe this fast”