prediction claim
For a complicated change in a massive codebase, an AI might build an initial understanding in significantly less than an hour, potentially matching what a human learns in a few weeks depending on complexity, but not what a person gains from roughly two years working on that codebase.
Ryan Greenblatt · Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? · 11 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So let's say you take, you know,”
“Fable 5 or Mythos 5 or whatever,”
“and you like wanted to make some kind of complicated change to a really massive code base.”
“The model will get some understanding of the code base.”
“codebase very fast like in the course of maybe like you know significantly less than an hour potentially much less than an hour and then it's understanding of the codebase will like plateau a little bit where it won't get as deep of an understanding as a human would have gotten over a much longer period so it's sort of like an ai in an hour can match a human with a few weeks maybe depending on the details of exactly how complicated the codebase is but then it won't match a human with like you know who's been working on that codebase for like two years or whatever”Play from 27:51Report a misattribution
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85%importance to the conversation
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