Extrapolating the observed task-length trend suggests that by around 2030 AI models could perform tasks that take humans a month or a year to complete.

“if you extrapolate this curve, they could be doing tasks that take.”

“humans one month to do or one year to do and then this like long-term coherency in executing a task is like fundamentally what intelligence is so this curve suggests that like we're getting there the other piece of evidence i kind of feel like my own mind works this way of”