Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
causal claim

The metric understated progress because it measured change from an initially overestimated uplift level.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“The metric looks like it was only a small amount of progress because the metric was tracking from like where we thought it was to where it is.”
“It overall makes it appear like there's been less progress according to this particular metric that we're using,”
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