causal claim
The metric understated progress because it measured change from an initially overestimated uplift level.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“The metric looks like it was only a small amount of progress because the metric was tracking from like where we thought it was to where it is.”
“It overall makes it appear like there's been less progress according to this particular metric that we're using,”Play from 6:34Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
92%confidence the claim was read correctly