causal claim
Uplift increased significantly due to coding agents and related developments, rising from below the authors' initial estimate to that estimated level and then somewhat above it.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
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“And so what actually happened is that there was actually significant increase in uplift due to coding agents and so forth, but it was increasing from a lower level than we thought up to the level that we thought and then a bit above. And so.”Play from 6:19Report a misattribution
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