opinion claim
The speaker says the median outcome for a forecast like AI 2027 is that events unfold so differently that its authors are totally humiliated.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“The median outcome for a forecast like this is being totally humiliated when everything goes completely differently.”1:36Report a misattribution
0.95how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.65importance to the conversation
0.97confidence the claim was read correctly