opinion claim
The speaker says the median outcome for a forecast like AI 2027 is that events unfold so differently that its authors are totally humiliated.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
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“The median outcome for a forecast like this is being totally humiliated when everything goes completely differently.”Play from 1:36Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
65%importance to the conversation
97%confidence the claim was read correctly