4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

Daniel Kokotajlo’s impression is that economists lack sufficient data to determine whether economic development is a continuous process or a sequence of phase changes.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“When I look at the economic modeling of this,”
“my impression is the economists think that we don't have good enough data to be sure whether this is all one smooth process or whether it's a series of phase changes.”
31:36Report a misattribution
0.80how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.80importance to the conversation
0.96confidence the claim was read correctly