prediction claim
A superintelligence in the Roman era might have inferred from first principles that steam-powered autonomous machines and automobiles could eventually be developed and have major economic effects.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“think partly it would be through figuring out that high level stuff from first principles rather than having to have experienced it i do think that like a superintelligence back in the roman era could have like guessed that eventually you could get autonomous machines that like burn something to like produce steam you know like they could they could have guessed that like you know automobiles could be created at some point and that that would be a really big deal for the economy”Play from 1:08:11Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly