A more sophisticated AGI forecast represents probability across multiple possible arrival years rather than naming only one predicted year.

“which is to say that you could make a simple prediction. You could say, I think AGI will be here in 2027 or 2039 or whatever.”

“But I think we all understand that that's the unsophisticated thing to do.”

“You can certainly say your best guess for which particular year you think it might.”

“might come but as people who are either scientists or know something about science we know there's what we call confidence interval around that so you know it might be this plus or minus that the most sophisticated thing to do is to actually draw out a curve and say you know i think some of the probability mass will come you know before 2027 and some of it will come before 2037 and some of it will come after in your i guess it's sort of an appendix to your ai 2027”