descriptive claim
Daniel Kokotajlo describes his group’s scenario as nearly conservative: it assumes trends continue, no one does anything insane, and no event without supporting evidence occurs.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Almost in some sense a conservative position where the trends don't change,”
“nobody does an insane thing,”
“nothing that we have no evidence to think will happen happens,”28:56Report a misattribution
0.90how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.80importance to the conversation
0.96confidence the claim was read correctly