descriptive claim

Daniel Kokotajlo describes his group’s scenario as nearly conservative: it assumes trends continue, no one does anything insane, and no event without supporting evidence occurs.

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Almost in some sense a conservative position where the trends don't change,”

“nobody does an insane thing,”

“nothing that we have no evidence to think will happen happens,”

90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true

80%importance to the conversation

96%confidence the claim was read correctly