prediction claim
The speaker considers it very plausible that a system with the cognitive abilities of a typical human will exist by 2030.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But so I'm still wrapping my head around that since I'm being more noncommittal about some of these different forecasts where I'd think maybe still seems very plausible,”
“more than plausible that by 2030 something that is has the cognitive abilities of a typical human,”
“some system like that.”Play from 2:04:19Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly