prediction claim
The team's estimate was that a superhuman coder would accelerate algorithmic progress by about five times.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So quantitatively, we were thinking something like 5x speed up to algorithmic progress from the superhuman coder.”Play from 26:48Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly