prediction claim
In the speaker's scenario, AI coding agents in the first half of 2027 are highly capable at coding but still lack research taste and may lack organizational skills.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Like that's what early 2020s, like the first half of 2027 in our story is basically they've got these awesome automated coders, but they still lack research taste and they still lack maybe like organizational skills and stuff.”Play from 20:59Report a misattribution
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80%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly