4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

In the speaker's scenario, AI coding agents in the first half of 2027 are highly capable at coding but still lack research taste and may lack organizational skills.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Like that's what early 2020s, like the first half of 2027 in our story is basically they've got these awesome automated coders, but they still lack research taste and they still lack maybe like organizational skills and stuff.”
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