prediction claim
The speaker thinks a base model or a very good prompt to imitate a particular voice might produce fairly good writing.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“for that post they were like not great but i wouldn't have immediately picked them out of the general distribution of less wrong comments as especially bad um i think like i think if you were to try this you would get something that was so obviously an ai house style um that it would be it would you would use the word delve or things kind of along those lines i think if you were able to avoid that maybe by using the base model maybe maybe”
“Using some kind of really good prompt to be like, no,”
“do this in Guern's voice.”
“You would get something that was pretty good.”Play from 2:59:32Report a misattribution
45%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
45%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly