The speaker considers it reasonable to assign roughly a 10–20% chance to effective global coordination on AI regulation, possibly enforced through sanctions on countries that defect, slowing AI deployment enough to avert explosive growth.

“at the same time as i said it's just hard to rule this out so i i wouldn't say like if someone said well i think like there's a 10 or 15 whatever 20 chance that like there will be some kind of global coordination and you know of regulation and that's going to just be very effective maybe it will be enforced through like sanctions on countries that defect or you know and then that is gonna like maybe it doesn't prevent ai from being deployed but maybe just like slow things down enough”

“enough that you never quite get explosive growth like i don't think that's an unreasonable view if it's like 10 chance could be”