opinion claim
The speaker thinks five years of AI operation at 50× serial speed would provide about 250 years of serial time, likely enough for AIs to work things out, potentially including the rise and fall of empires.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“five years if they're going at 50x serial speed then five years is like uh is what like”
“250 years of sort of serial time for the ais uh which to me feels like more than enough to like really like sort out this sort of stuff like you'll have time for like sort of like empires to rise and fall so to speak and like all of that to be like added to the chaining data and like yeah um but i could see it taking longer than we depict like you know maybe instead of six months it'll be like 18 months you know”Play from 47:09Report a misattribution
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