4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

In the AI 2027 scenario, superintelligences need substantial real-world experience before they can build practical technologies.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“a world in which they're bottlenecked on real world experience and and that sort of thing i think that like you know if you want to contrast some people in the past have proposed much faster scenarios where they like email”
“some cloud lab and start building nanotech you know right away Yeah. by just using their brains to figure out like appropriate protein folding and stuff like that we are not depicting that in our scenario in our scenario they are in fact bottlenecked on lots of real world experience to like build these actual practical technologies but the way they get that is they just actually get that experience and it happens faster than humans would and the way they do that is you know they're already super intelligent they're already buddy buddy with the government the”
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