prediction claim
The speaker estimates that developing much better reasoning and planning and more stable world models will take five or ten years.
Tim Scarfe · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But we'll have much better ways of doing reasoning and planning.”
“We'll have much more stable world models.”
“I think it will take five or ten years to develop that.”Play from 1:56:47Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly