prediction claim
The speakers' forecast is that AI agents will first receive agency training, then develop longer time horizons and stronger coding ability.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So we think they're going to”
“Start with agency training,”
“expand the time horizons, get coding going well.”Play from 7:11Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
91%confidence the claim was read correctly