descriptive claim
The team intends its forecast to represent its median estimate.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
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“i mean we're trying we're trying to be sort of like our median guess so like”Play from 23:12Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
45%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly