causal claim
Daniel Kokotajlo argues that a “nothing happens” outcome would require the long-running, steady rate of AI progress to stop.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Like I think in order to have nothing ever happen,”
“you actually need a lot to happen.”
“Like you need suddenly AI progress that has been going at this constant rate for so long stops.”Play from 28:14Report a misattribution
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80%importance to the conversation
97%confidence the claim was read correctly