prediction claim
The interviewer predicts that a second Volcker shock will probably occur again.
Dwarkesh Patel · Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028 · 25 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“he made this point that we'll see a second Volcker shock.”
“Fed Chair Paul Worker raised interest rates like more than 5% or like something like 8%, real interest rates 8%. And that caused some 40 different countries, mostly Latin America,”
“to default in that decade.”
“And I think that will probably happen again.”Play from 58:50Report a misattribution
60%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly