4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The speaker thinks advances comparable to those expected by 2100 might arrive earlier than expected because of a research-progress multiplier.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Like I think if I asked you, could we solve this problem by the year 2100?”
“You would say, oh yeah, by 2100, absolutely.”
“And we're just saying that the year 2100 might happen earlier than you expect.”
“because we have this research progress multiplier.”
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