4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The speaker is uncertain whether simulation-to-reality transfer will work well for extremely long-horizon, complex real-world tasks, and whether models' low sample efficiency will become consequential if it does not.

Dwarkesh Patel · AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement · 11 Sep 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“running and so yeah this is all to say first of all is there is there going to be good transfer between simulations and extremely long horizon really complicated real shit that we want the ai to do in the real world and if not does that really mean that like the lack of sample efficiency in these models comes to bite us”
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