SPEAKER_00 expects that even a half-sized acceleration in AI R&D, if it sustains the current AI-progress trajectory, would produce astonishing progress within five to ten years.

“okay stepping back i buy the idea that you could have much faster ar and d than we currently have i'm not sure if you get like gpt3 to mythos holding compute and data constant within a year but i'm like okay it could be like suppose it's half of that and if we just if we even manage to continue the current trajectory of ai progress as a result of ar and d um it would be fucking insane in five ten years in ways that i don't i don't think people like appreciate um because i don't know people appreciate”