opinion claim
The speaker says that decomposing a problem into conditional probabilities can get one about 99 percent of the way toward a solution and can help guide the problem-solving process.
Alexander Mattick · Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick · 21 Sept 2026
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“uh con especially Bayesian inference gives you a lot more structure a lot more information than what we give it credit for. Like some product just decomposing a problem into conditional probabilities gives you it gets you like ninety nine percent of the way there, but it can already help guide the actual problem. And I think that something like all these agentic things could really benefit from actually thinking about this as like a Bayesian problem of kind of going out gathering data.”Play from 49:12Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
80%confidence the claim was read correctly