prediction claim
While writing AI 2027, the speaker assigned a 50% probability to superintelligence arriving by the end of 2027 as his median projection.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But for those things, let's say for super intelligence,”
“I was thinking 50%.”
“50% chance by the end of 2027.”
“And that's why AI 2027 depicts it happening at the end of 2027 is because I was sort of illustrating my median projection.”Play from 47:16Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
99%confidence the claim was read correctly