prediction claim
A person with an existing group of supporters will probably receive mostly positive feedback on early, imperfect writing.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“And then like there are enough people who like you that you'll probably get mostly positive feedback,”
“even if the first things you write aren't that.”
“polished.”2:49:21Report a misattribution
0.65how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.30importance to the conversation
0.95confidence the claim was read correctly