prediction claim
A person with an existing group of supporters will probably receive mostly positive feedback on early, imperfect writing.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“And then like there are enough people who like you that you'll probably get mostly positive feedback,”
“even if the first things you write aren't that.”
“polished.”Play from 2:49:21Report a misattribution
65%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
30%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly