prediction claim
The speaker considers 2030 the earliest plausible date in the most bullish scenario.
Tim Scarfe · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“I think that the absolute most bullish,”
“if we want to use that word, case is 2030.”
“Like in the very fastest case, it'd be 2030.”Play from 1:29:57Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
88%confidence the claim was read correctly