prediction claim

The speaker expects later AI systems to probably perform noticeably better than GPT-3 or GPT-4 on fuzzy, non-verifiable tasks.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“blah, blah, blah, blah, like just try talking to like GPT-3 or GPT-4 and then talking to like Fable about your favorite, you know, non-verifiable fuzzy task and probably you'll find that the later AIs are noticeably better at those tasks.”

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70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true

75%importance to the conversation

90%confidence the claim was read correctly