descriptive claim
The speaker's forecasts for AI timelines tend to place a concentration of probability in the next five years, followed by a long tail.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But in terms of what the shape of our distributions look like, they tend to have a sort of hump in the next five years and then like a long tail.”Play from 48:11Report a misattribution
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