prediction claim
The speaker says that increasing model size somewhat over the previous couple of years has not yet produced the desired connection-making, though further scaling might help models notice more connections.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“maybe maybe so maybe second thing um have you tried making the model bigger uh they've made it a bit bigger over the last couple years and it hasn't worked so far maybe if they make it even bigger still it'll notice more of these connections and then third thing and here's here's i think the the special one have you tried training the model to do the thing you know just because like the you know the pre-training”Play from 19:38Report a misattribution
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70%importance to the conversation
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