prediction claim
Under a naive model in which AI researchers become 10 times as productive, the pace of AI progress would accelerate radically starting two years later.
Dwarkesh Patel · AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement · 11 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“if you just plug it into like a very naive model of like ai progress and how much is coming from ai researchers and they're like there's like a 10x increase in their productivity yeah you have like radically accelerated pace of ai progress starting two years from now of”Play from 1:33:21Report a misattribution
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