Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
descriptive claim

The speaker estimates that only about 1% of people skilled at short- and medium-form writing move to long-form writing.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“But only like 1% of these people who are good at short and medium form ever go to long form.”
Play from 2:38:20Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
55%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly