Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
prediction claim

At the time AI 2027 was released, Thomas Larsen expected reality to diverge much more from its scenario than it has to date.

Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“So at the time we released it, I would have assumed that reality would have”
“It would have diverged much, much further from our scenario than it has already.”
Play from 4:53Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly