prediction claim
At the time AI 2027 was released, Thomas Larsen expected reality to diverge much more from its scenario than it has to date.
Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sep 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So at the time we released it, I would have assumed that reality would have”
“It would have diverged much, much further from our scenario than it has already.”4:53Report a misattribution
0.90how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.70importance to the conversation
0.98confidence the claim was read correctly