causal claim
Blogging gives the speaker stronger incentives to do research deep dives and read books than they would otherwise have.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“I think I am more incentivized to do that.”
“So I think I do more research deep dives, read more books than I would if I weren't a blogger.”Play from 2:56:17Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
55%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly