4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

Under the hyperbola model, Daniel Kokotajlo places the most recent bottleneck around 1960, when the human population stopped reproducing at its earlier rate.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“The last time this hit a bottleneck, if you take the hyperbola view,”
“is in like 1960 when humans stopped reproducing at the same rate they were reproducing before we hit a population bottleneck.”
32:02Report a misattribution
0.80how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.70importance to the conversation
0.92confidence the claim was read correctly