prediction claim
The speaker considers the machine-intelligence level depicted toward the end of AI 2027 unlikely within the next decade and not very likely in the following decade, while allowing that it is possible.
Tim Scarfe · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“think that the level of intelligence that you attribute to the machines towards the end of the essay,”
“I remember some of that actually happens after the year 2027.”
“I think.”
“You know,”
“I don't really think is very likely in the next decade.”
“And I don't think it's super likely in the decade after that, but it's certainly possible.”Play from 1:52:17Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
91%confidence the claim was read correctly