descriptive claim
The speaker proposed assessing how the probability of reaching AGI changes with 10, 20, or 30 more years.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“You can make a big two-dimensional plot and you can imagine,”
“10 more years,”
“20 more years, 30 more years,”
“how does the probability that we get to AGI go up with more time?”Play from 53:52Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
65%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly