opinion claim
The speaker assesses that Daniel Kokotajlo’s 2021 forecast, “What 2026 Looks Like,” was almost exactly right.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
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“He got it almost exactly right.”Play from 2:00Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly