A survey from around 2023 reportedly forecast some capabilities later demonstrated by GPT-3 or GPT-4 as five to ten years away, although those capabilities appeared within about six months.

“But then when the survey might have been 2023,”

“it was like six months before GPT.”

“Three GPT-4 came out and there were things that GPT-3 or 4 or whichever one of them it was did that it did in six months that they were still predicting like five or ten years from. So I'm sure Daniel is going to have a more detailed answer but I absolutely reject the premise that everybody has always been too optimistic.”