prediction claim
The course of a war will not unfold exactly as expected.
Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sep 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“You know, things are just not going to go as you expect.”8:00Report a misattribution
0.90how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.55importance to the conversation
0.95confidence the claim was read correctly