4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
causal claim

Next-token prediction training does not incentivize models to discover the connections being discussed.

Dwarkesh Patel · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“are incentivized to find these connections next token prediction just isn't incentivizing them to do this but the rl required to do this would not be that or set up some sort of scaffolds i think actually google deep mind did do some similar like scaffold to make new discoveries and i didn't look into like how impressive the new discovery was they claim that some new discovery was made by an llm as a result um”
36:25Report a misattribution
0.85how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.70importance to the conversation
0.90confidence the claim was read correctly
Next-token prediction training does not incentivize models to discover the … · Savlar