causal claim
Next-token prediction training does not incentivize models to discover the connections being discussed.
Dwarkesh Patel · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“are incentivized to find these connections next token prediction just isn't incentivizing them to do this but the rl required to do this would not be that or set up some sort of scaffolds i think actually google deep mind did do some similar like scaffold to make new discoveries and i didn't look into like how impressive the new discovery was they claim that some new discovery was made by an llm as a result um”Play from 36:25Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly