The speaker says that if the necessary ideas are missing, progress depends on when new ideas are developed.

“dA fix, which is where I think we are now. I mean, proving that is very hard, I can give a lot of, you know, qualitative evidence to point in that direction. But there's at least a possibility that I'm right about that. If we don't have the right set of ideas, it depends on when we come up with new ideas. It could be that we automate the discovery of new ideas, but most of what LLMs have done is not discovery of new ideas, it's really exploiting existing ideas.”